The situational corpus reads a year of 8-Ks and earnings calls for every US-listed company and extracts dated events. Searching it for one phrase — an NVIDIA partnership — surfaces 68 events across 50 companies. After separating real partnerships from board hires and name-drops, 28 survive. This page is what the market paid for each one: the stock's move 1 day, 1 week, and 6 months after the announcement, net of the S&P 500.
The screen
# the screen: every event in the situational corpus mentioning NVIDIA
SELECT ticker, event_text FROM situational_event_vectors
WHERE event_text LIKE '%NVIDIA%' -- 68 events, 50 companies
# then read all 68 and hand-classify:
# tier 1: NVIDIA is the counterparty (partnership, equity investment,
# cloud-partner / exemplar program status) -> 20 events
# tier 2: deals to buy or deploy NVIDIA hardware for others -> 8 events
# excluded: board hires "formerly of NVIDIA", results reports that
# name-drop it, one-of-many integration lists -> 40 events
# returns: entry = last close BEFORE the announcement date, so day 1
# captures the pop; every horizon also computed net of SPYThe result
Market-excess returns after the announcement (entry is the last close before the news, so day 1 captures the pop):
| cohort | +1 day vs SPY | +1 week vs SPY | +6 months vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA as counterparty (tier 1) | +3.9% mean / +3.5% median (hit 70%, n=10) | -2.0% mean / -1.5% median (hit 30%, n=10) | -22.4% mean / -22.4% median (hit 50%, n=2) |
| NVIDIA-hardware deals (tier 2) | +17.3% mean / -0.7% median (hit 43%, n=7) | +32.6% mean / -1.7% median (hit 40%, n=5) | — |
| all announcements | +9.4% mean / +2.6% median (hit 59%, n=17) | +9.5% mean / -1.6% median (hit 33%, n=15) | -22.4% mean / -22.4% median (hit 50%, n=2) |
Three honest readings. One: when NVIDIA is the counterparty, the announcement is worth about four points on day one and seven in ten pop — the market treats NVIDIA's endorsement as information. Two: the medians turn negative by the week mark: the typical announcement is faded, and the positive means are carried by a few huge winners (Axe Compute more than doubled on its first B300 contract). Three: the six-month column is nearly empty because most of these announcements are only weeks old — the corpus watched this theme accelerate through 2026. The two old enough to measure split +28% and −50%: endorsement is not a warranty.
Every announcement
| date | company | type | +1d vs SPY | +1w | +6m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | SKYX SKYX Platforms Corp. | counterparty | +10.4% | -1.6% | -60.4% |
| 2026-03-02 | LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | counterparty | +11.7% | -18.3% | +15.5% |
| 2026-04-01 | AGPU Axe Compute Inc. | hardware | +119.0% | +173.8% | — |
| 2026-04-01 | TSSI TSS, Inc. | hardware | +6.5% | -1.7% | — |
| 2026-05-06 | GLW Corning Inc | counterparty | +10.6% | +20.3% | — |
| 2026-05-14 | INFQ Infleqtion Inc | counterparty | +4.3% | -15.7% | — |
| 2026-06-01 | VFSWW VinFast Auto Ltd. | counterparty | -0.9% | -5.5% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | DGXX Digi Power X Inc. | hardware | -2.4% | -22.0% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | AGPU Axe Compute Inc. | hardware | +5.2% | +21.2% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | BAM Brookfield Asset Managem | counterparty | +2.6% | +3.3% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | CERT Certara, Inc. | counterparty | -6.5% | -3.4% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | VST Vistra Corp. | counterparty | -1.2% | +2.3% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | IREN IREN Limited | counterparty | +1.8% | -1.5% | — |
| 2026-08-25 | QMLS QumulusAI, Inc. Common S | counterparty | +6.1% | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-08-25 | SUPX SuperX AI Technology Lim | hardware | -0.7% | -8.2% | — |
| 2026-08-26 | BTDR Bitdeer Technologies Gro | hardware | -5.5% | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | HIVE HIVE Digital Technologie | hardware | -0.9% | — | — |
Call-sourced events tagged to a quarter rather than a day — real partnerships, but not measurable without an exact date (Coherent's $2B NVIDIA equity investment, SharonAI's $4.9B compute collaboration, IREN's $3.4B cloud contract among them):
| company | type | the event |
|---|---|---|
| AMKR Amkor Technology, Inc. | counterparty | [Q2 2026] Strategic Partnerships with TSMC and NVIDIA (call): The company announced a 10-year advanced packaging agreement with TSMC and a multi-year strategic partnershi… |
| BNH Brookfield Finance Inc | counterparty | [H1 2025] Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA (call): The company signed an MoU with NVIDIA to launch a compute financing platform, mobilizing about $500 billion of capital… |
| BRUN Boost Run Inc. Class A | counterparty | [Q2 2026] NVIDIA Partnership and Exemplar Status (call): The company is an NVIDIA Cloud Partner and NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud, adhering strictly to NVIDIA's Reference Archite… |
| COHR Coherent, Inc. | counterparty | [Q3 2026] Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA (call): The company announced a strategic partnership with NVIDIA, including a $2 billion equity investment and a multiyear su… |
| GDYN Grid Dynamics Holdings | counterparty | [Q2 2026] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations (call): The company signed a strategic partnership with Doosan, a leading robotics manufacturer, and expanded its NVID… |
| IREN IREN Limited | counterparty | [Q2 2026] NVIDIA AI Cloud Contract and Partnership (call): IREN signed a $3.4 billion 5-year AI cloud contract with NVIDIA, the first step in a broader strategic partners… |
| KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | counterparty | [Q2 2026] Helix Digital Infrastructure Launch (call): KKR launched Helix Digital Infrastructure, a new AI infrastructure company with over $10 billion of initial long-dur… |
| PCOR Procore Technologies, | counterparty | [Q1 2026] Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA (call): The company announced a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to integrate the Procore platform with NVIDIA's VSX Blueprin… |
| SHAZ SharonAI Holdings, Inc | counterparty | [Q2 2026] Major Contract Wins (call): The company signed several major contracts, including a six-year strategic compute collaboration with NVIDIA worth $4.9 billion in t… |
| SVCO Silvaco Group, Inc. Co | counterparty | [Q2 2026] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations (call): Silvaco announced three strategic partnerships: with NVIDIA for GPU enablement and AI integration, with Dassau… |
| WYFI WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordin | hardware | [Q2 2026] New Multiyear Cloud Services Agreements (call): The company has signed several new multiyear cloud services agreements, including a $165 million contract with B… |
The forward screen
Turn the study around: take the companies whose NVIDIA announcement worked (positive day-one excess return), and ask the product-description embeddings which companies look most like them. Nine seeds, 10,966 candidates scored, the top matches hand-filtered — competitors removed (Qualcomm and Marvell build rival silicon), the Brookfield family deduplicated, warrant classes and similarity artifacts dropped. What survives clusters into the same repeatable patterns the seeds themselves follow:
| candidate | verdict | pattern · closest seed | why it fits |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT Riot Platforms ($7.8B) | strong | Compute conversion · IREN (cos 0.75) | The exact IREN precedent: powered sites and a miner-to-AI conversion underway. NVIDIA cloud-partner deals with converted miners already happened three times in this corpus (IREN, QMLS, HIVE). |
| IOND Ionic Digital ($2.4B) | strong | Compute conversion · IREN (cos 0.77) | Same conversion pattern at mid-cap scale: the ex-Celsius mining fleet repositioning toward AI hosting, where an NVIDIA program badge is the credibility unlock. |
| GDS GDS Holdings ($6.2B) | plausible | Compute conversion · TSSI (cos 0.79) | Data-center operator matching the AI-factory pattern - but China-domiciled, so export-control reality makes a formal NVIDIA announcement harder than the embedding similarity suggests. |
| MTSI MACOM Technology ($23.7B) | strong | Optics, materials & connectivity · LITE (cos 0.75) | The LITE / Coherent playbook: NVIDIA has put $2B each into two optical-interconnect suppliers. MACOM is the next obvious optics/RF supplier in that same chain. |
| LUMN Lumen Technologies ($6.4B) | plausible | Optics, materials & connectivity · LITE (cos 0.79) | AI datacenters need fiber backbone; Lumen already sells AI-era network buildouts to hyperscalers. NVIDIA adjacency is credible, though the pattern has no direct precedent among the seeds. |
| BDC Belden ($5.2B) | plausible | Optics, materials & connectivity · LITE (cos 0.75) | Physical-layer connectivity for AI buildouts - the Corning pattern one tier down: industrial cabling and networking rather than optical fiber. |
| RFIL RF Industries ($0.1B) | plausible | Optics, materials & connectivity · GLW (cos 0.75) | Micro-cap interconnect cabling squarely in the connectivity theme. Micro-caps court the NVIDIA association hardest and move most on it (see SKYX, AGPU). |
| IONQ IonQ ($16.6B) | strong | Quantum · INFQ (cos 0.76) | NVIDIA's quantum program (CUDA-Q) is exactly the Infleqtion pattern, and IonQ is the largest pure-play. A formalized collaboration is a natural announcement. |
| QUBT Quantum Computing Inc. ($2.1B) | strong (speculative) | Quantum · INFQ (cos 0.78) | Same quantum logic at micro-cap scale - the profile that seeks the association most actively and reprices most violently on it. |
| CLS Celestica ($36.5B) | likely already in | Optics, materials & connectivity · LITE (cos 0.75) | Ships NVIDIA-based systems today as an ODM - a formal announcement would confirm an existing relationship rather than create one. Kept for completeness. |
| ETN Eaton ($174B) | likely already in | Optics, materials & connectivity · GLW (cos 0.72) | Inside the 800V DC power ecosystem NVIDIA is organizing (Vertiv, its sibling in that effort, is already in our event list). Probably announced outside our corpus window. |
NVIDIA at the center; green nodes are the announced partnerships that popped (inner ring), blue and grey nodes the predicted candidates (outer ring), each linked to the proven partner it most resembles in embedding space. Hover any node for what was announced, or why the prediction makes sense.
The sources
| date | extracted event (tier 1) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | SKYX | [2026-01-01] Technology Expansion (filing): SKYX announced a collaboration with the NVIDIA AI Ecosystem Connect Program, expecting to grow its collaboration with NVIDIA through existing and future smart home pr… |
| 2026-03-02 | LITE | [2026-03-02] Strategic Partnership (filing): NVIDIA announced a multi-year strategic agreement with Lumentum to develop advanced optics technologies for AI infrastructure. NVIDIA will invest $2 billion in Lumen… |
| 2026-05-06 | GLW | [2026-05-06] Long-Term Partnership with NVIDIA (filing + call): Corning and NVIDIA announced a long-term partnership to expand U.S.-based manufacturing of optical connectivity solutions for AI infrastructure. C… |
| 2026-05-14 | INFQ | [2026-05-14] Technology Advancements (filing): Infleqtion advanced its collaboration with NVIDIA through the adoption of NVIDIA Ising AI models for quantum processor calibration and error-correction decoding on… |
| 2026-06-01 | VFSWW | [June 1, 2026] Autonomous Driving Partnership with Autobrains and NVIDIA (call): VinFast signed an MOU with Autobrains, its Level 4 autonomy partner, and NVIDIA, who will be a key supplier for VinFast's Level 4… |
| 2026-07-27 | BAM | [2026-07-27] Partnership Expansion (filing): Brookfield, NAVER, and NVIDIA announced a proposed expansion of Korea's sovereign AI factory infrastructure, with planned investments that will grow the initial NVID… |
| 2026-08-04 | CERT | [2026-08-04] Partnership with NVIDIA (call): Certara announced a partnership with NVIDIA, focusing on the integration of NVIDIA's AI models with Certara's software systems. This partnership is expected to enabl… |
| 2026-08-07 | VST | [2026-08-07] Helix Digital Infrastructure Announcement (filing + call): Vistra announced the formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA, and NVIDIA, with an initial commitment from Vistra of up to … |
| 2026-08-13 | IREN | [2026-08-13] Horizon 1 Delivery and NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud Status (filing): IREN Limited delivered and accepted Horizon 1 by Microsoft, the first of four 50MW (IT load) direct-to-chip liquid cooled AI Cloud depl… |
| 2026-08-25 | QMLS | [2026-08-25] Corporate Developments (filing): QumulusAI announced several corporate developments, including becoming an NVIDIA Cloud Partner, signing a GPU-as-a-Service agreement with DRW, and entering a coloca… |
Selection caveats, honestly held: the corpus covers the trailing year only, during the strongest AI capex cycle on record — these returns say nothing about partnership announcements in a downcycle. Companies choose when to announce; micro-caps court the association hardest (and move most). Six-month numbers exist for only 2 events. VinFast measured via VFS common shares (the corpus row is a warrant class). Educational; not investment advice.